During the Industrial Revolution, a famous “machine problem” was raised, meaning whether the mass application of machines would make workers unemployed on a large scale. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, this question has been raised again.
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A cover story in the latest issue of The Economist linked the impact of ARTIFICIAL intelligence on the world to the industrial revolution of the 19th century, when the famous “Machinery Question” was raised: whether the widespread use of machines would put workers out of work on a massive scale. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, this question has been raised again.
1. “Machine problem” reappears
From its initial failures to its current exuberance, will ARTIFICIAL intelligence lead to mass unemployment or even the extinction of the human race? Perhaps history will give us some useful clues.
Some fear that machines will take jobs from everyone, benefit only a select few, and ultimately upend society altogether. Yet something similar has happened in history. Two centuries ago, the wave of industrialisation that swept across Britain sparked fierce debate over the same concerns as today. At that time, people talked about the “machinery question” rather than the “industrial Revolution”. The idea was first expressed in 1821 by the economist David Ricardo, who focused on “the influence of machines on the interests of different social classes”, and in particular “the opinion held by the working classes that the use of machines is generally against their interests”. In 1839, Thomas Carlyle, a Scottish philosopher regarded as the foremost social commentator of his time, denounced the so-called “demon of mechanism”, writing that its destructive power would disrupt entire groups of workers.
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Now the “machine problem” is making a comeback, albeit under a different guise — artificial intelligence (AI) technology is advancing rapidly, allowing machines to perform tasks once only humans could do. Scientists, economists and philosophers are debating the potential impact of artificial intelligence technology. The impact can be profound. Jobs that previously seemed impossible to automate — from radiology to law — are also at risk because of AI technology. A much-cited 2013 study by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University found that 47% of American jobs had a high risk of being “replaced by computer capital” in the near future. A more recent report: Bank of America merrill lynch forecasts, 2025 years ago, artificial intelligence, “each year the impact of creative destruction” of May 14 to $33 trillion, including for artificial intelligence to realize the knowledge work automation, decrease the cost of hiring of $9 trillion, manufacturing and decrease of the medical care costs $8 trillion, And $2 trillion in efficiency gains from the deployment of driverless cars and drones. The McKinsey Global Institute, a think-tank, says AI is facilitating social shifts that are “happening 10 times faster, 300 times larger, and almost 3,000 times more influential” than the industrial revolution.
As they did two centuries ago, many fear machines will put millions out of work, cause inequality and social unrest. Martin Ford, who has written two books on automated threat bestsellers, he is worried about the middle class job will disappear, the liquidity (i.e. individuals, families or organizations to improve the level of economy) to the difficulty of the stops, the chaebol will “shut themselves in the gated community or elite in the city, there could be automated military robots and unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) in the protection.” Others worry that AI threatens humanity’s very existence because superintelligent computers may not agree with human goals and turn on the humans who created them. Many have expressed such concerns, like physicist Stephen Hawking. More surprisingly, Elon Musk, founder of the rocket company SpaceX and electric carmaker Tesla, has the same idea. Like Carlyle, Musk warned humanity: “We’re using ARTIFICIAL intelligence to summon the devil.” His Tesla cars can drive themselves using the latest AI technology, but Musk worries that the future AI overlords may be too powerful for humans to control. “It’s fine to have Marcus Aurelius as king, but it’s not so good to have Caligula as king,” he said.
Some see risk, some see opportunity. Investors are piling into the field, and tech giants are buying AI startups and competing to attract academia’s best research talent. Costs for AI companies hit a record $8.5 billion in 2015, nearly four times the amount in 2010, according to data analytics firm Quid. Nathan Benaich of Playfair Capital, an investment firm, says that in 2015 there were 16% more rounds of investment in AI companies than in the previous year, even as the tech industry as a whole fell by 3%. Playfair Capital, a fund manager, has 25% of its portfolio in AI. “XX+ artificial intelligence” has replaced “Uber of XX industry” and become the default business model of start-up companies. Google, Facebook, IBM, Amazon and Microsoft are all trying to build ecosystems of AI services in the cloud. “This technology will be used in any industry that has any kind of data, images, language, whatever.” “Artificial intelligence will be everywhere,” says Richard Socher, MetaMind’s founder. MetaMind is an artificial intelligence startup that was recently acquired by cloud computing giant Salesforce.
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What does that mean? This special report will examine the rise of this new technology, exploring its potential implications for jobs, education and policy, and considering its ethical and regulatory implications. It also considers what can be learned from the initial answers to machine problems. AI raises as many questions as it does concerns, but it’s worth remembering that many of them have been asked before and already answered.
2. Technology: From not working to neural networks
Artificial intelligence thrives on a mix of traditional and modern ideas.
How did ARTIFICIAL intelligence go from hubris and disappointment to the hottest field in tech? The term artificial intelligence was first written in 1956 in a research project that claimed that “if a carefully selected group of scientists spent a summer working together, machines could be enabled to solve various problems that humans could not…” To achieve significant progress. That turned out to be wildly optimistic, with ai promising far more than it could deliver, despite occasional breakthroughs. Ultimately, most researchers eschewed the term in favor of “expert systems” or “neural networks.” The current restoration and resurgence of “AI” dates back to an online contest in 2012 called the ImageNet Challenge.