preface
As a new generation of migrant workers, code farmers have just encountered such a bad international environment, epidemic, internal roll, policy changes brought by various layoffs… But what looks like an uneasy, crisis-filled future may be brewing new opportunities. Everything is the cycle of history.
The body of the
WeChat in 2011
Nailing in 2014
Cainiao Network 2013
Alipay 2004
Taobao 2003
Trill in 2016
Headlines in 2012
Pinduoduo 2015
Meituan in 2009
Aliyun 2009
Alibaba 1999
Quickly in 2014
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China’s GDP has entered 6 times since 2015. From $1.2 trillion in 2000 to $12 trillion in 2017, China’s GDP has increased tenfold in 17 years.
In the four years since 2017, no new phenomenal companies have emerged in China. Why is the state pounding the tech giants now?
The reason is very simple, because alibaba has not been innovative since 2015, and Tencent has not been innovative. The technology giants backed by major capital have found that innovation has become expensive. In fact, if there were no companies such as Byte, Kuaishou and Pinduoduo that emerged after 2014, the eruption of internal volume might have occurred two years earlier. However, neither the sinking market nor the explosion of the content industry is enough to satisfy the capital’s desire for profits. Internet innovation based on consumption logic has finally come to an end after 20 years.
In 2021, the national policy will begin to shift from the pursuit of efficiency to the pursuit of equality. The underlying logic behind this is that China’s GDP growth will slow and the birth rate will decline, and the future GDP will probably double by 2035, from the past few years, to seven or eight years, and then to more than a decade. If the technology industry with high ROE is allowed to grow unchecked, the gap between the rich and the poor in society will widen further. Social classes are entrenched and divided, which is almost disastrous for a socialist country.
In fact, since 2014, almost all technological innovations such as Internet finance, P2P, Internet medical care and artificial intelligence have failed in the consumer end, and the capital innovation that the country placed great hopes on has finally turned into a capital farce.
This year’s policy shift actually has early signs, from the national level, in the consumer Internet sector of capital innovation has reached the point of no new to create, or even if there is, but used to making quick money of capital is not worth these petty profits, the pain ha ha need to deep ploughed field.
The profit of capital must be shackled and forced to turn. Semiconductors and new energy vehicles are the real estate industry in China in the next 20 years. Compared with the side effect of financialization brought by real estate, semiconductors and new energy vehicles can not only solve the problem of stuck and meet the requirements of carbon peak, which is much better than real estate.
As for soft technology, the huge size of China’s small and medium-sized enterprises requires a service-oriented network to solve the problem of factor circulation between enterprises. In the first 20 years, the country invested heavily in infrastructure, developed network broadband, communication technology, and consumer Internet, which promoted the prosperity of commodity economy, the development of content-based network, and the flow of factors between people to a fairly developed degree, which has actually surpassed that of western countries
This is why people from western countries often come to China to mock that their country is backward in all aspects, but its per capita GDP is higher than ours. The core point of this contradiction is that the consumer Internet technology has not been popularized from China to foreign countries in the past 20 years. As far as WE can see, TIktok is the only example. At the same time, it also shows from the side that the development and prosperity of the factor circulation between people is limited to enhance the overall national strength. After all, we can’t control the world.
People are the main unit of economic activities, but the key to the efficiency of social and economic operation lies in enterprises. The imbalance between the low efficiency of enterprises and the high efficiency of human consumption in China has shown some negative consequences. Firstly, the income growth in most industries cannot catch up with the growth rate of consumption. Young people moonlight, credit overdraft has been a common phenomenon. Further lead to inner volume, lying equality and other social phenomena.
If China’s GDP doubles by 2035 and the new national income cannot be distributed to the latter three generations, can you imagine what it would be like if your parents have the same moonlight as you?
Cracking down on technological monopolies, resetting the economic logic, creating new industries, eliminating real estate, vigorously developing small and medium-sized enterprises, high-end manufacturing, reforming the education industry, diverting academic and vocational education, these policy reforms are all based on this logic. China has reached a point where it has to change.
So I think the opportunity for soft technology in the next 20 years is in the flow of factors between businesses.
When you choose an item on Taobao, click to buy, place an order, and then wait for the express delivery to your home, behind the seemingly simple is actually a complex supply chain supporting your convenient life.
It’s a lot of businesses and a lot of people working together to get this thing done. But the way the supply chain operates hasn’t changed much in the first 20 years. One of the most striking examples of this is that the majority of the millions of small and medium businesses we serve are still running Windows XP computers.
Compared with the latest mobile phone in your hand and the latest Mac on your desk, the update frequency of information equipment in small and medium-sized enterprises is very low. I even saw a large number of paper statements in statistics from some customers. This was Hangzhou, and IT was hard for me to imagine what it would be like in more remote areas.
Tens of millions of these small and medium-sized enterprises form a vast supply chain, not only for domestic consumers, but also for the rest of the world. Large volume, low profit, is the true portrayal of this network.
But the logic of the future is changing, and we have to face it. The decline in export growth, the transfer of low-end industries, and the appreciation of RMB will reduce corporate profits. Regulatory upgrades have further pushed up operating costs for small businesses in high schools.
In fact, small and medium-sized enterprises are just a group of pronoun, the group in the past is characterized by non-standard operation, a variety of forms, high elimination rate, this year open, next year close a large number of enterprises.
As time goes on, more small and medium-sized enterprises will be replaced in the future. But that’s where the opportunity lies.
The opportunity for soft technology in the next 20 years is China’s need to upgrade its vast supply chain, 90% of which is made up of small and medium-sized enterprises and hundreds of millions of workers. How to serve them, so that these small and medium-sized enterprises can really optimize the process, improve operational efficiency, reduce costs. Being able to compete in an increasingly open international environment is something we soft technology practitioners need to think deeply about.
This is a new trend of The Times and a new and broad opportunity for soft technology practitioners who have not caught up with the benefits of consuming the Internet. China will switch from demographic dividend to enterprise dividend era.