Source: Phala Trusted Network
Yuval Noah Harari is an Israeli historian and author of Homo Sapiens, The Destruction of Mankind and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. Translated: Marvin
The translation has been slightly abridged
* Thanks to the community volunteer “Sun Jia Kitty” for their translation support
“This storm will pass. But the choices we make now could change our lives in the future.”
Humanity is now facing a global crisis — perhaps the biggest crisis of our generation. The decisions people and governments make in the next few weeks could change the world for years to come, decisions that will affect not only our health care system, but our economy, politics and culture.
We must not only act quickly and decisively, but also take into account the long-term consequences of those actions. In making quick decisions between possibilities, we need to ask ourselves not only how to overcome the immediate threat, but also: What kind of world will we inhabit after the storm passes?
Yes, the storm will pass and humanity will survive, so most of us will still be alive — but we will be living in another world.
It is the nature of emergencies that many short-term emergencies become a part of life – they speed up history. All too often, decisions that could take years to deliberate are approved in a matter of hours, and immature or even dangerous technology is quickly deployed because doing nothing is clearly riskier.
This has made countries guinea pigs in a big social experiment. What happens when everyone works from home and only communicates long distances? What happens when entire schools and universities go online? Normally, governments, businesses and school boards would never agree to such experiments. But now we are not “normally”.
In times of crisis, we face two particularly important choices: the first is between strong government and the empowerment of citizens; The second problem is between nationalist isolation and global solidarity.
Deep bone marrow monitoring
In order to stop the epidemic, all mankind must abide by certain norms. There are two main ways to do this: one is by monitoring people’s movements and punishing those who break health regulations. Now, for the first time in human history, the technology can continuously monitor everyone. Fifty years ago, the KGB could not track 240 million Soviet citizens 24 hours a day, and the authorities could not have expected it to process all the information it collected effectively. While the KGB, with its human agents and analysts, could not follow every citizen, now the government can rely on ubiquitous sensors and powerful algorithms to know your movements like ghosts.
In the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, some governments have deployed comprehensive health surveillance and management measures. In China, for example, by tracking “health codes” on smartphones and reporting temperature and medical conditions from cities and outlets, the Chinese government can not only quickly identify suspected coronavirus carriers, but also track their movements and identify anyone they have come into contact with. A series of mobile apps warn citizens to stay away from infected patients.
About the surveillance footage
The accompanying images were taken from a webcam overlooking an empty Italian street, discovered and manipulated by Graziano Panfili, a photographer who lives under lockdown.
The use of this technology is not limited to East Asia: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently authorized Israel’s security Service to deploy surveillance technology (often used to fight terrorists) to track coronavirus patients. When the relevant parliamentary subcommittee refused to approve the measure, Mr Netanyahu introduced an “emergency decree”.
You might argue that all this is old news. Because in recent years, governments and companies have used increasingly sophisticated technology to track and monitor crowds. But keep in mind that this epidemic could still be an important watershed in the history of surveillance if we are not careful. Not only because it could normalise countries that have so far rejected the tools of mass surveillance, but more importantly because it represents a sharp shift from “out of the skin” surveillance to “under the skin” surveillance.
Before this pandemic, when your finger touched a smartphone screen and clicked on a link, the government just wanted to know what your finger was clicking on. But with the coronavirus, the focus has shifted — now, the government wants to know the temperature of your fingers and its blood pressure under your skin.
Emergency pudding
One of the problems we face in determining the surveillance environment we live in is that none of us know how we will face surveillance and what the next few years might bring!
Surveillance technology is advancing at an astonishing rate, and what was science fiction a decade ago is now news. As a thought experiment, consider a hypothetical government that requires every citizen to wear a biometric bracelet every day to monitor body temperature and heart rate for 24 hours. The resulting data are stored and analyzed using government algorithms. These algorithms will know you’re sick before they even know it, and they’ll know where you’ve been and who you’ve met. Chains of infection can be greatly shortened or even cut off altogether. It could be said that such a system could halt the spread of an epidemic within days. Sounds great, right?
The downside, of course, is that it would legitimise the dreaded new surveillance system. For example, if you know I clicked on a Fox News link instead of a CNN link, you can sync up some information about my political views and even personality. But if you can monitor my temperature, blood pressure, and heart rate as you watch, you can see what makes me laugh, what makes me cry, and what makes me really angry.
It’s important to remember that anger, joy, boredom and love are biological phenomena, just like fever and cough. The same technology that identifies coughs can also identify laughter. If companies and governments start collecting our biometric data in bulk, they will know us better than we know ourselves, so they can not only predict how we feel, but also manipulate our feelings and sell us whatever they want, such as Internet goods and political intentions. Biometric surveillance will make Cambridge Analytic data hacking strategies look like the Stone Age. Imagine North Korea in 2030, where every citizen has to wear a biometric bracelet 24 hours a day, and if you listen to the Great Leader’s speech and the bracelet shows signs of anger — you’re screwed.
Of course, you can use biometrics as a temporary measure in case of an emergency. Once the emergency is over, it will be gone. However, we found that most emergency measures have a bad habit of persisting AD hoc decisions, especially when a new emergency is on the horizon.
For example, Israel declared a state of emergency during its war of independence in 1948, during which a series of temporary measures were taken, including censorship of the press and confiscation of land. The war of independence was long won, but Israel never declared a state of emergency and did not repeal many of the “temporary” measures of 1948.
Even if coronavirus infections drop to zero, some data-hungry governments may say they need to keep biometric surveillance systems constantly ready because of fears of a second coronavirus, or because a new Ebola virus is emerging in central Africa. Because… You know. In recent years, there has been a fierce battle over our privacy. The coronavirus crisis could be a turning point in the battle. Because when people are given a choice between privacy and health, they often choose health.
Soap police
In fact, asking people to choose between privacy and health is the root of the problem. Because it’s a false choice. We can and should enjoy both privacy and health. We can choose to protect our health and stop the coronavirus pandemic, and do so as little as possible through possible invasions of privacy, such as through enhanced citizen initiative.
Centralized monitoring and harsh punishment are not the only ways to make people adhere to good norms. When people are told the scientific facts, and they trust public authorities to tell them the facts, citizens can make good decisions even without strong government oversight.
Consider, for example, washing your hands with soap, one of the greatest advances in human hygiene. This simple action could save millions of lives every year. Although we take it for granted, it wasn’t until the 19th century that scientists discovered the importance of washing your hands with soap. Previously, even doctors and nurses moved from one surgical procedure to another without washing their hands. Today, billions of people wash their hands every day, not because they fear soap police, but because they know the facts. I wash my hands with soap because I’ve heard about viruses and bacteria, I know these tiny creatures cause disease, and I know soap can get rid of them.
The Royal Palace of Caserta © Graziano Panfili
But to achieve this level of compliance and co-operation, you need trust. People need to trust science, trust public authority and trust the media. Over the past few years, irresponsible politicians have deliberately undermined trust in science, the public sector and the media.
Trust that has usually been eroded for years cannot be rebuilt overnight, but these are not normal times. In times of crisis, thinking can change quickly. For example, siblings may have heated arguments over the years, but when an emergency arises, you suddenly discover their hidden trust and kindness and start helping each other.
It is not too late to build trust in science, public authorities and the media. We should certainly take advantage of new technologies, but they should empower citizens. I’m all for monitoring your temperature and blood pressure, but that shouldn’t be used to create a powerful government. Instead, the data should enable me to make more informed personal choices, and if I can track my health 24 hours a day, I will not only learn whether I am a health hazard to others, but also which habits help me. And, if I have access to and analysis of reliable statistics on the spread of the coronavirus, I will be able to judge whether the government is telling me the truth and whether the government is adopting the right policies to combat the epidemic. Whenever people talk about surveillance, remember that the same surveillance techniques can often be used not only by governments to spy on individuals, but also by individuals to spy on governments.
So the coronavirus pandemic is a major test for citizens. In the coming days, each of us should choose to trust science, data or medical experts over baseless conspiracy theories and self-serving politics. If we fail to make the right choices, we may find ourselves giving up our most precious freedom, believing that this is the only way to preserve our health.
We need global cooperation
The second important choice we face is between nationalist isolation and global solidarity. Both the epidemic itself and the resulting economic crisis are global problems. Only global cooperation can effectively address these problems.
First, in order to defeat viruses, we need to share information on a global scale, which is the greatest advantage modern humans have over viruses. We can assume that Chinese and American coronaviruses cannot exchange tips on how to infect humans, but China could teach the United States a lot about coronaviruses and how to deal with them. The scientific evidence discovered by a Chinese doctor early in the morning in Wuhan may well save the lives of the people of Milan, Italy, at night. To do this, we need a spirit of global cooperation and trust.
Countries should be willing to share information openly and humbly seek advice, and should be able to trust the data and insights they receive. We also need a global effort to produce and distribute medical equipment, especially test kits and ventilators. Rather than each country trying to produce locally and stockpiling equipment, a concerted global effort would greatly speed up production and ensure a more equitable distribution of life-saving equipment.
Just as countries nationalize key industries during wars, humanity’s war with the coronavirus may require us to “humanize” key production lines. As things stand, few rich countries are willing to provide valuable equipment to poor ones. We might consider a similar global effort to pool medical staff. Countries that are currently less affected can send medical staff to the hardest-hit areas of the world to help them when needed and to gain valuable experience. If we focus on changes in the epidemic later, help will start flowing in the opposite direction.
There is also a great need for global co-operation on the economic front. Given the global nature of the economy and supply chain, if each government went about its business in complete disregard of the others, the result would be chaos and deepening crisis. We need a global plan of action, and we need to implement it quickly.
Another requirement is a global travel agreement. Suspending all international travel for months would cause enormous hardship and hinder the war on coronavirus. Countries need to co-operate to allow at least a small group of important travellers to continue crossing: scientists, doctors, journalists, politicians and businessmen. This could be achieved through a global agreement on pre-screening of travellers in their home countries. You will be more willing to accept passengers into your country if you know that only those who have been carefully screened are allowed to fly.
Unfortunately, most countries currently do almost none of these things. The international community is paralyzed. It was hoped a few weeks ago to see an emergency meeting of world leaders to forge a common plan of action. But the LEADERS of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations only organised a televised meeting this week and did not make any such plans.
In previous global crises, such as the financial crisis of 2008 and the Ebola outbreak of 2014, the US has taken a global leadership role. But the current ADMINISTRATION has abdicated leadership. It has made it abundantly clear that it cares more about American greatness than about the future of humanity.
The U.S. government has abandoned even its closest ally. When it banned all travel from the EU, it did not bother to give the EU adequate notice — let alone consult the EU about such a draconian measure. Germans were shocked when the United States reportedly offered a German pharmaceutical company $1 billion for monopoly rights to a new COVID-19 vaccine.
Even if the current US administration eventually reverses its stance and comes up with a global plan of action, few will follow a leader who never takes responsibility, never admits mistakes, and routinely takes all the blame while blaming everyone else.
If the void left by the United States is not filled by other countries, stopping the current epidemic will not only be more difficult, but its legacy will continue to poison international relations for years to come. However, every crisis is also an opportunity. We must hope that the current pandemic will help humanity recognize the grave dangers of global disunity.
Humans have a choice to make. Will we follow the path of national unity or global unity? If we choose to go our separate ways, this will not only prolong the crisis but may lead to even worse disasters in the future. If we choose global solidarity, it will be a victory not just against coronavirus, but against all the future pandemics and crises that could strike humanity in the 21st century.
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