McKinsey’s 160-page report: 800 million jobs could be taken by machines by 2030

Nowadays, artificial intelligence is flourishing, and the threat theory that it will replace human beings is rising one after another, which is in line with the classic theory of “people are red and right”. So is this the hype of human entertainment or the general trend of technological development? The definitive answer may only come when it actually happens. In this article, the threat that as many as 800 million people will be displaced by 2030 is not groundless. Will there be enough job opportunities in the future, and how will we adapt to the coming career change?

McKinsey recently released a 160-page study titled “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation.”

400-800 million people will lose their jobs

McKinsey predicts that between 400 million and 800 million people around the world will be replaced by automation by 2030, equivalent to one-fifth of today’s global workforce.

Why is automation affecting work so much? According to statistics, in 60% of occupations worldwide, at least a third of constituent activities can be replaced by automation. In other words, the impact of career transformation on human society is of great significance.

The potential impact of automation on employment will vary by profession and sector

Activities most vulnerable to automation include physical activities in a predictable environment (such as operating machinery and preparing fast food), collection and data processing activities that can be done better and faster by machines. That could displace a lot of labor, such as mortgage origination, paralegal work, accounting and back-office processing.

Are there sufficient job opportunities?

Historical data show that technology can create jobs.

△ Employment share by industry in the US from 1850 to 2015

As can be seen from the chart, after the two industrial revolutions, the number of people employed in agriculture, manufacturing and mining decreased significantly, but the number of people employed in trade, education and health care increased significantly.

The impact of automation varies by country’s income level, demographic structure and industrial structure. The chart below shows the percentage of jobs displaced by automation in different countries between 2016 and 2030.

The size of the circle represents the number of full-time labor hours (FTE) that could be lost. The color represents the average age of workers. The horizontal axis is GDP per capita in 2030, and the vertical axis is the percentage of jobs that will be replaced

McKinsey predicts that with sufficient economic growth, innovation and investment, new jobs will more than offset job losses from automation. And in some advanced economies, we will need additional investment to reduce the risk of labor shortages.

So how are new jobs created?

In its report, McKinsey examined seven factors that could boost employment. The results showed that increasing consumer incomes had the biggest impact on job creation.

Making sure workers have the skills they need to do their jobs is a bigger challenge than shrinking the number of jobs available, and countries that fail to make the transition are likely to see unemployment rise and workers’ wages fall.

How to face the coming career transition?

In its report, McKinsey notes that being replaced by robots will not mean mass unemployment, as new jobs will be created and people should upgrade their skills to cope with the coming era of great employment change. In The case of China, in the context of rapid automation, about 100 million people will face career transition by 2030, accounting for about 12 percent of the total employment by then. While that number may seem large, it is small compared with the tens of millions of Chinese who have left farming in the past 25 years.

Many people are trying to slow down automation in order to maintain the status quo in the face of the coming job transition, but this will not only limit the scale of labor migration, but also reduce the impact of automation and ARTIFICIAL intelligence technologies on business and the economy. To do this, society should address four key areas:

• Maintaining strong economic growth to support employment;

• Expanding and repositioning jobs and retraining Labour skills;

• Improving the dynamism of business and Labour markets, including mobility;

• Income and transition support for practitioners.

In this regard, we do not need to be too nervous, conform to the trend of the development of The Times, continue to learn new skills, step by step to do their own.

Want to see the full 160-page report? no problem

Want a lite version? There is also a 28-page summary version of the report

Want something leaner? Then this two-page version might be more suitable for you

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