Planning a tour can be divided into the following three scenarios, and different scenarios correspond to different planning methods.
- I only know I want to travel, but I don’t even know which city to go to.
- You have a city you want to visit, but you haven’t chosen a destination yet.
- You’ve identified the places you want to visit, just the itinerary.
Goal planning is the same, different types of goals correspond to different planning ideas.
By Luo Peiyu
One size fits all
Some existing planning textbooks, however, like to say that goals must be clear and measurable.
“Goals must be clear and measurable” comes from the SMART principle of goal planning, which states that only clear and specific goals can be implemented, so unclear goals are not good goals.
For example, in a “small goal of the year” meeting, some people wrote “read 10 books a year” and “run 2 kilometers a day”, while others wrote “get a promotion and raise salary” and “find a girlfriend”. Those students who wrote “get a promotion and raise salary” were criticized. People think that “reading 10 books a year” and “running 2 kilometers a day” are concrete goals, while “getting a promotion and a raise” are vague goals, not guidelines for action.
However, you cannot set a specific and ambitious goal because of the limitations of human knowledge.
If I were to set goals, I would either have to set clear goals like “Read 10 books.” Or you set goals that you wish for but can’t plan for in detail, such as a raise or promotion. Definite goals seem to be a false proposition, because they are not goals for things I can control well. And can not control, and can not clearly plan.
As shown in the figure below, I can divide the things I can plan into three categories: deterministic, vague, and hopeless. For recent events or familiar areas, I can make accurate predictions, and give a step-by-step action plan to achieve the goal; For unfamiliar areas, you can make a general plan; There’s no way to start with anything that’s beyond the cognitive range.
Divide the things you can plan into three categories: solid, vague, and unmanageable
The big problem with the SMART principle is that it limits you to what you can plan for in the realm of certainty. It is a way of “cutting the cake” under current conditions, not a way of “growing the cake”.
“Firm” scoping is like planning a trip where you have already identified the places you want to visit, and then listing clear action maps (below). “Vague” scope is like a city you want to go to, but you have not yet selected the scenic spots. At this time, you should look for the information of this city, rather than not to travel because it is not clear.
A detailed tour guide
“Clear goals are good goals” and “Vision is not a goal” are only applicable at the level of “making an action plan”. We should have a broader vision and explore what is beyond our capabilities and what we desire.
Level three: action guide
Let’s start with the simplest step in making a travel guide. If you have already identified the places you want to visit, you need to plan specific routes of action. We can mark the geographical location of each scenic spot on the map and arrange the visit order according to the location of scenic spots and traffic conditions (as shown in the picture below). Sometimes we also need to give up some difficult attractions according to the time of play, the degree of love for scenic spots, ticket prices and other factors; If you have a multi-day trip, find a place near a scenic spot.
Travel route planning, pictures from hornet’s nest, see Resources
Scenic spots can be seen and felt, corresponding to the target planning, is to have a more detailed goal, belongs to the “determined” within the scope of the development of action guide. Because the amount of resources we can control in a short period of time is generally fixed, the certainty scope is more focused on how to arrange action steps with limited time and resources.
If you have a large goal, a general planning tutorial will tell you to break it down as follows:
1. Suppose the goal is X, and suppose that the important factors for achieving this goal are A,B,C,D; 2. To achieve A, A1, A2, A3….. A B C D 3. Repeat Step 2 until you break it down into detailed, actionable goals.
In familiar territory, we are able to break down large goals into small goals of sufficient detail. But actually, breaking down goals is A very technical thing. Are A,B,C, and D really important factors affecting X? Are there other factors that have not been considered? How to ensure that each step of refinement of the goal is correct?
China’s Chang ‘e project, for example, has divided the lunar probe into three phases: “orbit, fall and return”. The “orbit, fall and return” is professionally broken down, which can’t be done by reading a few management books.
China’s lunar exploration program has three stages
The decomposition target requires sufficient cognition of a domain. For unfamiliar domain, it belongs to the “fuzzy” scope, and we cannot make a reasonable decomposition, so the “second layer” method should be used.
Layer 2: Search
Planning a trip is often the experience of having an idea of the city you want to visit, but not quite sure what sights you want to see. At this point, we need to search for some information about the city, such as Kyoto’s attractions listed on the hornet’s Nest below. Look at the descriptions and choose the ones that interest us. Once you’ve chosen, you can go back to layer 3: A Guide to Action.
A list of Kyoto attractions on the Hornet’s nest
Can use the fog of war metaphor for different levels of goal programming, as shown in the figure below real-time strategy game, players can only see a small area (range corresponding to the “dichotomy”), and the players want to attack the enemy base, must be based on experience and intuition to choose a direction (corresponding to “fuzzy” range).
Screenshot of a strategy game
Most of these classical theories were put forward by American business management experts during World War II. At that time, The American manufacturing industry was booming. For the manufacturing industry, it was predictable what kind of results could be produced through what kind of steps. In today’s information age, the “fog of war” is what we see and hear every day.
For the “fuzzy” range, the key is to master more information, the more information can “guess” more accurate, such as:
1. Read literature and materials in this field. Reading a lot of books and literature is the most cost-effective way to obtain information. Its price is cheap, and the quality of formally released materials is guaranteed to some extent.
2. Ask a professional. Being able to consult effectively tests the way people do things. Guokr launched an APP called “Hang Xing” in 2015, which allows you to meet experts for advice for a certain fee. However, Jixing has a bad reputation due to its high price and poor service quality.
Expert introductions and topics that experts are familiar with
3. Look at what others in the field are doing, or where analogies are relevant.
Step is step. In multi-player scenarios, others won’t pull out all at once, and sometimes you need to make a move to show sincerity before others can move forward. Low-cost heuristic is also a way to get information.
There is reason to believe that when you have enough information, you can go back to “Level 3: A Guide to Action” to set small, clear goals.
Level one: Inspiration
We may long for a city because we have heard of a destination. Or fall in love with a city because of an anime; Or a famous person wants to see where he lives. Because of what we have seen and heard at ordinary times, we yearn for something and have the intention of traveling. Below is a scene from Detective Conan, which is set in Kiyomizu Temple in Kyoto, where some people go on a pilgrimage because of Conan.
A scene from Detective Conan is the Kiyomizu Temple in Kyoto
High-level planning is often artistic, relying on inspiration and daily accumulation, or out of historical mission, or out of values, or out of the icon, is a moment of yearning for beautiful things. It is, let’s say, unplanned, refined only in life experience.
To take a counter example, the “Harvard University Survey,” often cited in goal-planning courses, found that 3% of Harvard students who had goals and plans during their college years became elite. And 60% of those who have no goals end up in the lower middle class. This paragraph is meant to illustrate the importance of planning, but it is apocryphal. We explore how to achieve something because we have something we want to do, not because planning is important.
Experiencing beauty in life and discovering what your heart wants is the source of inspiration.
conclusion
From the three scenarios of tourism planning: “I have already determined the scenic spots I want to go to”, “I have a city I want to go to, but I haven’t chosen the scenic spots”, and “I don’t know which city I want to go to”, we can see that different scenarios require different methods. Goal planning is the same. Different goals are selected in different ways, rather than “unclear goals are not good goals”.
Maybe we can peep into the macro topics of goal management, career planning, life planning and business strategy from the method of making travel guides.
Main References:
This paper was drafted in early 2020 due to confusion about “clear goals”, but has not had much inspiration. It has been revised N times in the middle of 2021. Some references are listed below, some of which were referenced in previous releases but removed from the final release.
Writing Down Your Goals – The Harvard Written Goal Study. Fact or Fiction? Through research, the authors confirmed that the Harvard study was a fabrication
Community.mis.temple.edu/mis0855002f… In 1981, George T. Doran published the original paper on SMART management by Objectives. It can be seen that SMART principle is mainly aimed at the executive level of enterprise management, while some planning courses have extended it to planning in various fields.
The Kyoto tourist guides listed in this article refer to this article
This article uses the experience of Nobel Prize winner Feynman to explain that setting too clear goals is limiting yourself. It says: The mistake in setting goals is to assume you already know what you want
What is the Monte Carlo algorithm? Monte Carlo algorithm: the more samples, the more approximate the optimal solution; Las Vegas algorithm: The more samples you take, the better chance you have of finding an optimal solution. In the goal planning of the second level, the more professional knowledge you learn and consult the more professional people, the more accurate the answer will be. The first level of inspiration also depends on the accumulation of ordinary, but often unconscious, flash. The description can be compared to “Monte Carlo algorithm” and “Las Vegas algorithm”. The description was removed from the final version because it was too technical.
Can you share your plans for 2021? What are your plans or goals for 2019? What are your New Year’s resolutions for 2020? Can you share your goals or plans for 2020? Please tell me about your short term goals and long term plans for your life. Referring to the annual goals shared by some netizens, it can be found that most clearly planned goals are how many books to read, how many kilometers to run, or consumpation-oriented goals (how many movies to go to, how many concerts to go to, how many trips to travel), or get a certificate. Most practical goals are hard to pin down into action plans.
Given an overall goal, how do you break it down? Classic: How to develop your career from 22 to 45 What is the 5W2H principle? This article explains SWOT, PDCA, 5W2H, SMART, WBS, time management, 80/20 principle. . In addition to the SMART principle, 5W2H analysis, PDCA cycle, GROW model, WBS decomposition, four quadrants of time and other methodologies are also frequently used in planning textbooks. We finally find that these methodologies are in the field of business management. Clover “career planning” model has also been some career planning material reference, points out that in the career planning to seek social value, have advantages and interested in their own fields, but by the description of the “classical” (proposed) model, we will find that it is a depression in the work of analysis model, rather than a programming model. There was some discussion about the scope of these methods in the earlier version of this paper, but it was not reflected in the final version because it was not very relevant to the topic. www.douban.com/group/topic… I’m lucky I didn’t… Several levels of planning described in the full text actually contains a major premise, that is, “there is a goal to achieve” is correct, is a relatively active, optimistic state of mind. Further think, “have a goal to achieve” is just a hypothetical correct, with the solidification of social class, 996 wei however become the norm, some people feel that lying down is justice. For example, in the post “Lying down is Justice”, the author argues that “one should not be so tired, one should pursue that simple life”. Besides, is achieving goals really a good thing? Not necessarily. Some people look back and say, “There were things I was lucky I didn’t get.” The earlier version of the article elaborated this premise, but in any case, it is meaningful to look at the problem from a proper perspective, otherwise it is easy to fall into nothingness when digging layer by layer, so relevant descriptions will be deleted in the final version.