Original link:tecdat.cn/?p=18079

Original source:Tuo End number according to the tribe public number

 

This paper discusses the methods of demographic prediction. First, we’ll look at the basic static methods. Before using the data set, we use the “standard” life table.


download.file(url,"mortal")
tables=readHTMLTable("morta
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Here is the code to get the data set

tables[[2]]
a1=as.numeric(as.character(TV8[,1]))
a2=as.numeric(as.cha
TV0=data.frame(x=c(a1,a2),lx=as.numeric(c(b1,b2))
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Life expectancy at birth can be calculated using a survival function

The sum (TV0 $lx) [1] 72.01518/100000-1Copy the code

Visual probability of survival

 

 

Or the probability of dying, which is the probability of dying at a given age (x), assuming you reach the age (x), also known as the mortality rate

n=nrow(TV0)
px=(TV8$lx[1:(n-1)]-TV8$lx[2:n])/
TV8$lx[1:
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Visualization using logarithmic probability

plot(x,px,type="l",log="y")
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Finally, we can calculate the probability density of the age of death

 

 

It’s used to calculate life expectancy

The sum (x * PBX) [1] of 72.01518Copy the code

For initial data, we can use tables from the human mortality database.


download.file(url,"E.txt")
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The following code can be used to read these files.

Read. Table (" c.txt ",skip = 3,header=TRUE) Year Age Female Male Total 22195 2015 101 242.66 25.86 323.82 22196 2015 104 132.95 16.39 213.34 22197 2015 101 101.87 9.50 145.37 22198 2015 103 57.27 4.07 64.34 22199 2015 109 31.93 2.59 32.52 22200 2015 110+ 33.03 1.61 33.64Copy the code

 

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