Author: Zhan Fu
There is a popular slogan in BCH circles: 1 billion people on BCH! (The walking interpreter C has his face covered with X, do I have so much influence?)
This slogan reminds me of jack Ma’s slogan: “Let the world have no difficult business”. I feel that the two realms have a fight, both are the mind of the world, arrogant.
But now Jack Ma has done it. Not only has he made it easy to do business, he has made a billion people without hands. (what? You still have a hand to cut off?
So how does BCH reach a billion people?
The main problems facing BCH are:
There is no need to use BCH.
In fact, not only is there no strong demand for BCH, there is not strong demand for BTC, or even for all digital currencies. While I’m talking about BCH today, I’m talking about all kinds of digital currencies.
For example, I am a fan of BCH. I have tried my best to find opportunities to use BCH more, but to be honest, I really have no need to use BCH. As far as my personal life is concerned, wherever digital currency is available, I can use fiat currency to solve the problem.
But the real demand demand determines the real value, the real value determines the price ah, so our BCH trillion market value road how to do?
How do you get a billion people to BCH?
My personal rough estimate is that according to the minimum network effect theory, if the first 100,000 people can use BCH, the initial network effect will be formed, and 1 billion people will use BCH in the future.
So where are the real needs of the first 100,000 people? I can sum it up in four words: cross-border, innovative, illegal and restricted.
Say cross-border first: the legal tender of cross-border trade, cross-border transfer efficiency is very low, fast for a few weeks, slow or even six months a year, and BCH don’t need a minute, the efficiency is very high, so to speak, and these are the real demand of digital currency concentration camps, is base in the development of digital currency, future business will be very big.
Innovation: Getting traditional businesses and merchants to accept digital currency may be a bit more difficult, considering audience precision, legal and compliance issues. However, for new enterprises, Internet enterprises, high-tech enterprises, especially blockchain-native companies, these companies should be the easiest to accept digital currency. Binance, for example, offers a service to pay salaries with digital currency. A small win is a big win, and a small amount is a big trend. These companies are the spark for the widespread popularity of digital currency in the future.
Regarding illegal activities: drugs, gambling, etc., this is awkward. It is these illegal activities that really have a strong need for digital currency, and the anonymity of digital currency objectively facilitates illegal activities. But this, after all, violates the law and does not accord with the good public order and customs of the society, so we do not encourage it, but it is difficult to eliminate.
End is limited: in the current legal tender as the main body of the payments and settlement system, there are a lot of behavior is limited, such as P2P and equity to pay accept payment system is restricted, such as large transfer limit, such as cross-border payment is difficult to put an end to the exchange rate effect and so on, these limited legal tender to pay, it is also the main areas for the development of digital currency.
The goal of digital currency is not to replace legal currency or compete with legal currency, but to make up for the lack of legal currency, compete with it in the lack of legal currency competitiveness, so as to bring greater convenience to the society.
If we do well in the above four aspects, enough seed users will be accumulated for digital currency. I believe that the number will break through 100,000, and the subsequent network effect will make the users break through 1 billion, so as to walk out of a road of “rural areas encircled cities”.